Uncertainty
Games, like life, are full of uncertainty: the roll of the dice, the turn of a card, and the cube tumbling through the cube tower. But even in games of perfect information, such as Chess, our opponents’ choices make our knowledge of how the game will unfold imperfect. The source of uncertainty and how uncertainty is perceived contribute much to the shape of the overall player experience. Uncertainty that comes from a truly random process, like a die roll, creates a lighter and more chaotic feeling for players—even if the design calls for throwing enough dice enough times to smooth out the worst ends of the distribution curve. Players participating in a rock-paper-scissors contest, however, will feel a greater sense of agency and will harbor a belief, right or wrong, that the outcome of the contest is not random. Uncertainty lurks in many unexpected places. Can you rely on your memory? Did the King of Hearts already go out? Did you properly deduce where Jack the Ripper moved to? What is your partner signaling to you with that drawing? Who is the werewolf? Can you balance Rhino Hero on the next card up the tower? Uncertainty can create chaos, but players can also manage uncertainty using different tools. Betting, bluffing, and even deck-building all help manage card-draw randomness. Letting players see the result of a random process before needing to make a decision about it, such that the random result is an input in their decision-making—input randomness—makes randomness something players respond to, rather than rely on. On the other hand, forcing players to make a high-stakes decision contingent on a random outcome— output randomness—creates enormous drama and tension. Because uncertainty can have a powerful impact on the game experience, designers often seek to control its influence in a variety of ways. In some cases, this is baked into the design itself, through the distribution of cards in a deck or the number of dice that must be rolled, and similar systemic design elements. In many cases though, the power to mitigate uncertainty is given to players. Dice manipulation powers, card- and deck-manipulation powers, and other kinds of special abilities do give players greater agency. While there is a loud contingent of players who disdain randomness and luck in games, a word to the wise: the most successful commercial games typically have far more luck in them than the most highly regarded hobby games. Games with more uncertainty and randomness tend to be accessible to more players and facilitate enjoyment even when there are large skill differences between players at the same table. Having a clear focus on the intended market for your game will serve as a crucial guide in determining how to handle uncertainty. Designers have a broad palette of colors to paint with when it comes to the sources of uncertainty, its framing, and how players experience it. Managing uncertainty properly is key to the art of game design.
不确定性 (Uncertainty)
游戏，像生活一样，充满了不确定性：骰子的滚动，卡牌的翻转，以及方块在骰塔中的翻滚。但即使在像国际象棋这样完美信息的游戏中，对手的选择也使我们对游戏将如何展开的知识变得不完美。不确定性的来源以及如何感知不确定性对整体玩家体验的形成有很大贡献。来自真正随机过程的不确定性，如掷骰子，为玩家创造了一种更轻松、更混乱的感觉——即使设计要求掷足够多次骰子以平滑分布曲线的最坏端。然而，参加石头剪刀布比赛的玩家会感到更大的代理感，并且会怀有一种信念，无论对错，即比赛的结果不是随机的。不确定性潜伏在许多意想不到的地方。你能依靠你的记忆吗？红心K已经出了吗？你正确推断出开膛手杰克移到哪里了吗？你的搭档用那幅画向你发出什么信号？谁是狼人？你能把犀牛英雄平衡在塔的下一张卡片上吗？不确定性会制造混乱，但玩家也可以使用不同的工具来管理不确定性。下注、虚张声势，甚至牌库构建都有助于管理抽牌随机性。让玩家在需要对此做出决定之前看到随机过程的结果，使随机结果成为他们决策的输入——输入随机性——使随机性成为玩家响应的东西，而不是依赖的东西。另一方面，强迫玩家做出取决于随机结果的高风险决定——输出随机性——会产生巨大的戏剧性和紧张感。因为不确定性会对游戏体验产生强大影响，设计师通常寻求以各种方式控制其影响。在某些情况下，这是通过牌堆中卡牌的分布或必须掷出的骰子数量以及类似的系统设计元素烘焙到设计本身中的。但在许多情况下，缓解不确定性的权力被赋予了玩家。骰子操纵能力、卡牌和牌堆操纵能力以及其他类型的特殊能力确实赋予了玩家更大的代理权。虽然有一大群玩家鄙视游戏中的随机性和运气，但这也要提醒一句：最成功的商业游戏通常比最受推崇的业余游戏有更多的运气成分。具有更多不确定性和随机性的游戏往往更容易被更多玩家接受，并且即使同一张桌子上的玩家之间存在巨大的技能差异，也能促进享受。清楚地关注你的游戏的预期市场将作为决定如何处理不确定性的关键指南。在不确定性的来源、其框架以及玩家如何体验它方面，设计师有广泛的调色板可以绘画。正确管理不确定性是游戏设计艺术的关键。